Navigating the Metaverse: Hype, Adoption, and the Future
The metaverse is one of the most mysterious phenomena in today's digital economy. Despite the widespread and ongoing hype surrounding the technology, there remains uncertainty about its adoption. A 2023 Mintel study revealed that only 21% of Americans consider the metaverse "useful," the same percentage as last year's, who think it is "confusing." Nevertheless, powerhouses such as Nike and Coca-Cola have already taken the leap into the metaverse. Microsoft has invested $69 billion in its development, while Citi foresees revenue opportunities of $13 trillion. So, if big brands are betting on the metaverse and virtual reality (VR), but Americans still feel its realization is too futuristic, then where are we on its trajectory?
Economic thought leader Carlota Perez has forecasted the evolution of technology for decades. Through her research on industry cycles, she has produced a framework known as a Perez cycle for technological paradigm shifts. VR's disruptive technology is part of a life cycle that resists prediction after a period of heavy investment. So, where is VR in its Perez cycle?
We created the infographic above to help visualize Perez's view of the evolution of technological disruptions. If we contextualize the phases in terms of VR, we see that we may be at a turning point from which the metaverse can go in two directions. Tech enthusiasts like us can only hope that it will mature and become mainstream, but first, big companies will need to get the hardware and haptics in place. Alternatively, metaverse development could cease to progress and pause at the capital investment phase, where it will eventually collapse. Major investors remain optimistic that this will lead to a technological revolution. But again, there is no certainty that their investments will come to fruition. Only time will tell!
